This archive report was first published on 8 November 2019.
On November 8, 2019, the Kibra by-elections concluded, with Bernard Imran Okoth securing a well-deserved victory. Beyond the hype and excitement, it was clear that Mariga's chances of winning were slim from the start.
Mariga's candidature was met with skepticism, and his poor public speaking skills, lack of a tangible manifesto, and unfamiliarity with the day-to-day challenges of Kibra residents made him appear aloof and out of touch with the community.
His inability to shake off the 'outsider' tag was further exacerbated by the Jubilee leadership's lukewarm support, with party leader Uhuru Kenyatta, Secretary-General Raphael Tuju, and Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja giving him a wide berth.
Mariga's candidature was seen as a defiance against Uhuru by William Ruto, and legislators Dennis Waweru and Maina Kamanda drummed the message home at every meeting, further solidifying Mariga's outsider status.
Meanwhile, Raila Odinga's campaign team cleverly exploited the 'Baba's bedroom' narrative, rallying his supporters to come out and help him chase the enemy, effectively galvanizing his voter base and turning the tables on Mariga's campaign.
Macdonald Mariga's inability to own his candidature, articulate his vision, and prepare for the race ultimately led to his downfall. His association with William Ruto, who has many enemies in Kibra, also worked against him, with some of these enemies pouring support into other candidates.
Despite a joint push from ODM, Jubilee, Narc, and Kanu leaders, Mariga's campaign was ultimately doomed by the 'Handshake' narrative, which gave Imran a nationalistic interest and masked the shambolic nomination process that handed him the party certificate.
Operation Linda Kura, a massive voter bribery scheme, was also a significant factor in Mariga's loss, with several people, including elected leaders, being chased by self-appointed ODM security for attempting to sway voters with finances.
Replacing a deceased MP in a by-election is a highly emotive issue in Kenya, and Imran's head start as the constituency manager, combined with his familiarity with the community and top influencers, ultimately gave him the edge he needed to win.
The Kenyan voter is fatigued and no longer cares about promises of good roads, stadiums, water, and healthcare. Mariga's promise of a stadium and jobs only reawakened the jubilee nightmare that voters are waking up from, making it impossible for him to win.
By Veteran Kenyan journalist Daniel Otieno
