This archive report was first published on 18 October 2019.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), sub-Saharan Africa's economy is expected to grow at 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020. The subdued growth in the region's three largest economies is a major contributor to this forecast.
However, the growth is expected to be slow due to trade tensions between the US and China. Additionally, Nigeria's economy is expected to be affected by volatile oil prices in the first two quarters of 2019, while Angola's economy is expected to contract this year due to a decline in oil production.
South Africa's growth is also expected to be weaker, reflecting the impact of labour strikes and energy supply issues in mining, as well as weak agricultural production. The IMF estimates that in 2020, growth in Nigeria will be at 2.5 percent, Angola 1.2 percent, and South Africa 1.1 percent.
Despite the challenges, the IMF expects about 20 African economies to experience solid growth faster than 5 percent this year, accounting for 34 percent of sub-Saharan Africa's GDP. Countries such as Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, and Senegal are projected to be Africa's fastest-growing economies next year, with growth rates of 7.3, 7.2, and 6.8 percent respectively.
Kenya's real GDP is expected to grow by 5.6 percent in 2019 and 6.0 percent in 2020, according to the IMF's October World Economic Outlook. The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have led to weak business confidence, causing manufacturing firms to be cautious about long-range spending and hold back on equipment and machinery purchases.
As a result, countries in the region are advised to seek macroeconomic policies such as monetary policy to stabilize activity and strengthen the foundations for recovery or continued growth. In the medium term, sub-Saharan growth is projected to increase from 3.6 percent in 2020 to 4.2 percent in 2024.
