This archive report was first published on 28 September 2019.
Exactly 15 months before the 2021 general elections, two by-elections took place in Hoima, Uganda, presenting a litmus test for both the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the opposition parties.
On September 26, 2019, the NRM candidates carried the day, winning the additional two seats and increasing the party's tally to 308. The independents have 70 seats, while the combined opposition holds only 60 seats.
President Yoweri Museveni made a campaign trip to Hoima district to bolster the efforts of Harriet Businge Mugenyi, the NRM candidate. However, top opposition leaders, including Dr. Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Bobi Wine of People Power, Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), and Norbert Mao of the Democratic Party (DP), also campaigned in the area.
On the same day, the NRM won the election in the remote district of Kaabong in Karamoja, where the opposition candidate, Judith Adyaka Nalibe, withdrew her candidature but still garnered 1,692 votes against the NRM's Tubo Christine Nakwang's 22,532 votes.
According to Dr. Patrick Wakida, chief executive officer at Research World International, both Hoima and Kaabong presented critical insights for 2021. He noted that a clear trend in growth of opposition against the NRM in voter numbers as well as the significant hurdles that the opposition face.
