The clock is ticking on the Ruto-Raila deal. East African Legislative Assembly MP Winnie Odinga has revealed that the political memorandum of understanding (MoU) between President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) expires on March 7, 2026—just 38 days away.
Winnie Odinga said this deadline forces a political review on whether the government has delivered on the 10-point agenda. Any new pre-election coalition talks will depend on the MoU’s implementation, which she insists is a social contract with the people of Kenya.
Ruto-Raila Deal Expires in March? Winnie Odinga Explains Rush Behind ODM-UDA Pre-Election Talks
President William Ruto’s political deal with the late Raila Odinga, known as the Ruto-Raila Deal, is on the brink of expiry. Signed on March 7, 2025, at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC), the 10-point memorandum of understanding was designed to guide cooperation between UDA and ODM.
According to Winnie Odinga, the MoU was never open-ended. “That date was deliberately put there so that we review how far we have gone on social justice, anti-graft, and the other issues before deciding our next steps,” she told Citizen TV on January 27.
The Ruto-Raila Deal was more than a political handshake; it was a framework to deliver tangible results to Kenyans. Winnie warned that premature discussions on a new coalition are meaningless unless the existing agreement is fully executed.
ODM Conditions Before Any New Agreement
Winnie Odinga emphasized that ODM will not engage in negotiations for a fresh pact unless the 10-point agenda is honored. The party has set clear conditions: equitable power sharing, the deputy president slot, senior government appointments, and, above all, full implementation of the MoU.
“If the agreement is trashed or ignored, then there is no basis for negotiating on behalf of Kenyans or ODM supporters,” she said.
The warning is clear: President Ruto cannot simply seek ODM support for broader political ambitions without first demonstrating delivery on prior commitments. Winnie framed the Ruto-Raila Deal as a “social contract” with the public, binding UDA to action beyond party politics.
Political Urgency Ahead of 2027 Elections
With just one and a half years before the 2027 general elections, political tension is rising. President Ruto is reportedly keen to formalize a new UDA-ODM pact ahead of schedule. But Winnie Odinga described this rush as premature. She pointed out that the relevance of the Ruto-Raila Deal extends beyond Raila Odinga’s presence, dismissing claims that political changes could void its significance.
“It cannot be trashed simply because Raila Odinga is no longer in the picture,” she stated, reaffirming that the MoU’s commitments are institutional, not personal.
The government has moved to demonstrate compliance. A team overseeing the MoU’s implementation recently met at State House and briefed President Ruto on progress. The same team will present a preliminary report on February 6, a month before the agreement lapses.
Winnie’s remarks underscore a strategic reality: ODM’s cooperation will hinge on verified delivery. Any attempt by the ruling party to negotiate a fresh deal without fulfilling promises risks political backlash.
Implications for Kenya’s Political Landscape
The expiry of the Ruto-Raila Deal is more than a procedural matter. It signals a critical juncture in Kenya’s political chessboard. Parties and politicians are watching closely to see whether UDA has honored the MoU before seeking renewed support from ODM.
Observers note that formalizing a new alliance prematurely could alienate the electorate, especially if social justice and anti-corruption promises remain unfulfilled. Winnie Odinga’s statements are a clear message: ODM’s participation in future coalitions is contingent on accountability.
The countdown to March 7, 2026, is forcing the government to show results fast. How President Ruto and his team navigate this timeline could define political alliances and voter trust ahead of the 2027 elections.
