The recent surge in maize flour (unga) prices in Kenya has created a “perfect storm” for the national dinner table.
As of mid-February 2026, the price of a 2kg packet of unga has hit a high of Sh160, up from Sh120 just weeks ago.
This crisis is primarily driven by a high-stakes standoff between the government.
And farmers who are hoarding grain in anticipation of even higher prices as drought conditions begin to bite.
Why Maize Hoarding is Driving Unga Prices to Record Highs
The cost of Kenya’s most essential staple, ugali, has become the center of a national crisis as unga prices hit a punishing Sh160 per 2 kg packet.
The price hike, which represents a 33% increase in less than a month.
Indeed has triggered an emergency response from the Ministry of Agriculture as silos across the country remain dangerously low.
The Standoff: Farmers vs. The State
At the heart of the shortage is a “game of chicken” between the government and large-scale farmers, particularly in the North Rift region.
Despite the government setting a buying price of Sh4,000 per 90 kg bag, many farmers are refusing to sell.
Farmers argue that with emerging drought conditions in 10 counties, the cost of production has skyrocketed.
And holding onto grain is their only insurance against a harsher dry spell.
However, the Cabinet Secretary for Agriculture, Mutahi Kagwe, has labeled this “ruthless market speculation.”
“Food security is not optional; it is a national duty,” CS Kagwe declared during an inspection of the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) depots.
To the maize hoarders, you have 30 days to release your stocks into the market and our strategic food reserves, failure to which we will immediately allow duty-free maize imports to bring maize flour prices down. We MUST protect our people. pic.twitter.com/knRW5a9UPc
— Cabinet Secretary Agriculture & Livestock Dev’t (@CS_MoALD) January 26, 2026
“We have Sh1.7 billion ready to pay farmers immediately, yet our strategic reserves have received only 186,000 bags against a target of 1.7 million.”
The 30-Day Ultimatum
In a bold move to crash the artificial shortage, the government has issued a 30-day ultimatum to hoarders.
If local stocks are not released to the market by early March, the state has threatened to gazette duty-free maize imports from non-COMESA countries.
While this would lower prices for consumers, it is a move farmers dread, as cheap foreign grain could flood the market and leave them with unsold stock.
Regional “Plan B”: The Zambia Deal
Anticipating that local hoarding might not break in time, Kenya has already secured a fallback.
Earlier this week, the government finalized an emergency deal with Zambia to supply up to 1 million bags of maize.
The Cereal Millers Association (CMA) is also in high-level talks with Tanzania to secure another 500,000 metric tons.
By diversifying the supply chain, the government hopes to bypass the internal “hoarding blockade.”
And stabilize retail prices before the 3.6 million Kenyans currently facing food insecurity are pushed further into crisis.
The Micro-Reality: A Meal Skipped
For the average Kenyan household, the macroeconomic battle is felt at the supermarket shelf.
An extra Sh40 on a packet of unga means a meal skipped or a walk to work instead of a matatu ride.
As the 30-day clock ticks down, the nation watches the North Rift silos—and the high seas—to see who will blink first.
