Mombasa politics is heating up ahead of 2027 with whispers that State House is grooming Abubakar Joho, younger brother of cabinet secretary Hassan Joho, for the coveted governorship.
President William Ruto’s allies are said to be pushing Abu to unseat Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, setting the stage for a bruising political battle.
By tapping into the Joho family’s money, business networks, and Coast influence, Ruto strategists want to tilt the balance in Mombasa while creating fresh cracks in Raila Odinga’s ODM stronghold.
Abubakar Joho at the Center of State House Strategy
The Joho name has long dominated Coast politics, and now Abubakar Joho is being positioned as the new face of power. Unlike his elder brother Hassan, who rose to national prominence through ODM, Abu is being fronted to run on a UDA ticket. Sources say Ruto handlers want him to replace Governor Nassir, whose leadership is already facing criticism over stalled development and weak health services.
The calculation is clear. By having Abu in UDA, State House can weaken Raila without openly attacking him, given Hassan Joho remains close to the ODM leader. This dual strategy is designed to keep the Joho family divided while drawing Abu closer to Ruto’s circle.
Adding to the intrigue, Abu and billionaire tycoon Mohammed Shabhal are reportedly in business with Ruto’s administration. Abu’s company has already been linked to controversial land deals, including the Talanta Stadium site in Nairobi. Both men are now political pawns in a wider game of control stretching from Mombasa to Lamu.
Governor Nassir Faces Growing Isolation
Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, a first-term leader, is finding himself politically cornered. Once considered the Joho family’s safe bet, Nassir is being sidelined as alliances shift. Reports suggest that Joho insiders no longer see him as strong enough to protect their political empire.
Critics accuse Nassir of mismanaging county funds, pointing to his newly built mansion in Nyali as evidence of looting. His strained relations with county speaker Aharub Khatri have also deepened divisions. Khatri, once groomed by the Joho family, now publicly slams Nassir’s performance in health and infrastructure, exposing the cracks within ODM’s coastal grip.
For Nassir, the entry of Abubakar Joho into the 2027 race could spell political doom. Even UDA loyalists like Nyali MP Mohamed Ali, who recently defected to Rigathi Gachagua’s camp, may find themselves sidelined if Abu wins State House backing.
The Shabhal Factor in Mombasa and Lamu
Mohammed Shabhal remains a wild card in the Coast political chessboard. In 2022, he shelved his Mombasa gubernatorial bid under pressure from the Joho family, Raila Odinga, and Uhuru Kenyatta. This time, however, insiders say he may relocate to Lamu if Abu runs in Mombasa.
With Governor Issa Timamy completing his final term in Lamu, Shabhal is well positioned to extend Joho-linked influence into a second county. His financial power and business ties with both the Joho and Odinga families make him a key player Ruto cannot ignore.
But if Abu opts out of the race, Shabhal could remain in Mombasa, making the governor’s race even more unpredictable. Either way, his political moves will shape whether UDA can secure a grip on the coastal counties.
Joho Family Power Play Extends Beyond Mombasa
The Joho family is not only focused on Mombasa. Hassan Joho has quietly rebranded himself after supporting Raila in 2022 and later reconciling with Ruto. His public declaration to run for the presidency in 2032 while urging Kenyans to reelect Ruto in 2027 signals a long-term survival plan.
The family is also expanding its influence into Kilifi and Kwale. Joho recently endorsed Aisha Jumwa in Kilifi and Fatuma Achani in Kwale, moves that have rattled ODM loyalists. With their business empire spanning Mombasa, Lamu, and the broader region, the Johos are emerging as power brokers no national party can ignore.
If Abubakar Joho secures UDA’s ticket for Mombasa, it would cement the family’s ability to play both sides of the political divide, using money and loyalty to cut deals with whoever occupies State House.
