This archive report was first published on 23 May 2020.
On January 1, 2020, many of us were looking forward to a rather different year. Full order books, much travel, many gatherings, busy office life. But by March, we were sitting in our homes looking shell-shocked. Whole economies were shut down, many businesses went into forced hibernation, millions of workers were laid off.
Strategy adviser Sunny Bindra shares his personal experience of not seeing the pandemic coming, despite being someone who sifts through signals to discern what might be about to change. He reflects on the concept of 'black swan' events, popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and how the coronavirus pandemic was not an unexpected event, but rather one that was predictable due to similar viruses causing widespread trouble before.
Bindra attributes the lack of preparedness to normalcy bias, a psychological problem where people underestimate the threat posed by looming disasters and are plagued by inaction. He notes that even when governments issue advance alerts, most people ignore them and try to carry on as normal.
Bindra's own experience of correcting against the bias and adjusting to the looming danger in good time serves as a lesson in the importance of humility and having multiple options. He emphasizes the need to stay humble in the face of uncertainty and to do good things in spite of our vulnerabilities.
