This archive report was first published on 23 May 2020.
On May 23, 2020, Egypt's war drums over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) were still beating loudly. The $4.5 billion dam, under construction since 2011, would be Africa's biggest hydroelectric power plant once completed.
The dispute revolves around the rate at which Ethiopia fills the reservoir behind the dam and its impact on water supplies downstream in Sudan and Egypt, both of which rely heavily on the Nile as their primary water source.
Ethiopia wants to begin filling the dam from July, while Egypt insists it should be filled from 10 years onwards. Sudan is caught in the middle, advocating for a negotiated agreement between the three countries.
Since construction started, Egypt has threatened to go to war to secure continued access to the Nile waters. However, with a ballooning population and over 60% of its population without electricity, Ethiopia sees the GERD as existential, arguing that it will not perish nor condemn millions of its people to poverty because of Egypt's claims to the Nile.
Recently, after talks brokered by US President Donald Trump failed, Egypt has taken its case to the Arab League and the UN Security Council. Despite this, war noises and movements have continued.
On the brink of conflict, it's worth considering whether a war over the Nile might be a good thing. If Egypt attacked Ethiopia, the antiquated idea that the Nile is a common good to which all have natural rights would collapse, and the river would finally become a national asset to which countries along it own.
Greater ownership would likely spark better stewardship and economics around the Nile. The Nile and Lake Nalubaale (Victoria) are abused water resources, in part due to the idea that they belong to everybody and nobody.
Here in the East Africa Community, we will have to settle on the source and economic rights that come with it. While Jinja is the popular view of the Source of the Nile, good science suggests the most distant source is either in Rwanda or Burundi.
For now, Uganda should be able to collect custodian's fees from South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt, and invest it in protecting the polluted Lake Nalubaale and the real estate of the river that sits on its territory as it flows north.
