This archive report was first published on 15 May 2020.
Published on May 15, 2020, a World Health Organization (WHO) modelling study has warned that the new coronavirus could kill 150,000 people in Africa in a year unless urgent action is taken.
The study, which was published in the journal BMJ Global Health, predicts that nearly a quarter of a billion people will be infected, with most showing few or no symptoms.
According to the researchers, the virus is likely to circulate within the region for longer than in other countries, possibly for several years.
Transmission was estimated to be greatest in small nations, with Mauritius found to have the highest risk of exposure. Of the region's large countries, South Africa, Cameroon, and Algeria were also in the top ten for exposure risk.
The authors calculated this risk by looking at each country's 'gathering factor' (including family size and population density), people's likely ease of movement, sanitation and hygiene practices, and weather.
Researchers warned that surging hospital admissions for Covid-19 would divert already limited resources to tackle major health issues in the region, such as HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and malnutrition, worsening the impact of coronavirus.
The study comes amid stark warnings that Covid-19 threatens a health emergency in developing nations where fragile health systems are already struggling with an array of other chronic diseases.
