This archive report was first published on 6 May 2020.
Published on May 6, 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its earlier projections, predicting a slowdown in economic growth in the East African region in 2020.
The IMF expects the Ethiopian, Rwandan, and Ugandan economies to expand by 3-3.5% in 2020, while Tanzania's economy is expected to grow at 2%. Kenya's economy, however, is projected to grow by only 1% in the current year.
Kenya is expected to suffer the biggest hit in economic expansion in the East African region due to its strong links to the international markets. The Mombasa port, an important entry point for international trade in the region, recorded lower than expected cargo movement in the first quarter of 2020.
The projected drop in global remittances is also expected to dampen Kenya's economic growth, as the country receives the largest share of diaspora remittances in the region.
Analysts at Citi Research are slightly more optimistic, forecasting a 2.9% economic growth for Kenya in 2020, citing the support of the informal sector and agriculture.
While the IMF expects a growth rate of only 1% in East Africa's top economy in 2020, the region is expected to post strong economic growth in 2021, based on the low number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in the region.
