This archive report was first published on 15 January 2020.
Published on January 15, 2020, a recent surge in Al-Shabaab attacks in northern Kenya has sparked concerns that the Somali terror group may be more resilient than previously thought.
Historically, Al-Shabaab's attacks tend to peak between December and February, often coinciding with anniversaries of previous successful attacks or the start of Ethiopia's military campaign against them in 2006.
According to recent numbers, there has been a slight increase in attacks compared to previous years, with at least 21 people killed since December last year, mostly in northern Kenya and Lamu.
Analysts note that the group's apparent shift in strategy, targeting non-locals and communication masts in northeastern Kenya, is an old tactic aimed at making Kenyans doubt the presence of Kenya's troops in Somalia.
The attack on a military base jointly operated by Kenyan and American forces in Lamu last week is a significant indicator of Al-Shabaab's adaptive capabilities.
Since taking over in 2017, US President Donald Trump has prioritized defeating Al-Shabaab using air strikes, which has reduced the group's ability to carry out large-scale attacks.
However, the group has responded by targeting American interests and switching to low-grade insurgency and guerrilla tactics in Kenya, while continuing to undermine the Somalia government using high-impact attacks in Mogadishu.
Residents of northern Kenya and the coastal county of Lamu are feeling the wrath of a resurgent Al-Shabaab, which was previously deemed to be on its last kicks just two years ago.
