This archive report was first published on 15 January 2020.
Published on January 15, 2020, a recent increase in attacks by al-Shabaab in northern Kenya has sparked concern that the Somali terror group may be weakened but not yet defeated.
Historically, al-Shabaab's attacks tend to increase between December and February, coinciding with anniversaries of previous successful attacks or the start of Ethiopia's military campaign against them in 2006.
Since December last year, at least 21 people have been killed, mostly in northern Kenya and Lamu, similar to the number of casualties in the Dusit attack in Nairobi whose first anniversary will be this week.
Analysts say the continuing attacks on non-locals and communication masts in northeastern Kenya are an old strategy of attempting to make Kenyans doubt the efficacy of Kenya's troops in Somalia.
The attack on a military base jointly operated by Kenyan and American forces in Lamu last week is, however, the greatest indicator of the terror group's adaptive capabilities.
As US President Donald Trump has made defeating al-Shabaab a top priority since 2017, the group has turned to low-grade insurgency and guerrilla tactics in Kenya, while continuing to undermine the Somalia government using high-impact attacks in Mogadishu.
Residents of northern Kenya and the coastal county of Lamu are feeling the wrath of a resurgent al-Shabaab, which just two years ago had been deemed to be on its last kicks.
On Sunday night, an attack at Kamuthe Primary School in Garissa left 10 people dead in the country within a week, with the school closed indefinitely following the attack which claimed the lives of three teachers.
