This archive report was first published on 15 January 2020.
Published on January 15, 2020, a recent surge in Al-Shabaab attacks in northern Kenya has sparked concerns that the Somali terror group may be more resilient than previously thought.
Historically, Al-Shabaab's attacks tend to peak between December and February, often coinciding with the anniversaries of previous successful attacks or the start of Ethiopia's military campaign against them in late 2006.
Since December last year, at least 21 people have been killed in northern Kenya and Lamu, a similar number to the casualties in the Dusit attack whose first anniversary will be this week.
Analysts point to the group's shift in strategy, targeting non-locals and communication masts in northeastern Kenya, as an attempt to make Kenyans doubt the presence of Kenya's troops in Somalia.
The attack on a military base jointly operated by Kenyan and American forces in Lamu last week is a significant indicator of the terror group's adaptive capabilities.
Under US President Donald Trump, who took office in 2017, the US has prioritized defeating Al-Shabaab using air strikes, reducing the group's ability to carry out large-scale attacks.
As a result, Al-Shabaab has turned to low-grade insurgency and guerrilla tactics in Kenya, while continuing to undermine the Somalia government using high-impact attacks in Mogadishu.
Residents of northern Kenya and the coastal county of Lamu are bearing the brunt of a resurgent Al-Shabaab, which was deemed to be on its last kicks just two years ago.
On Sunday night, an attack at Kamuthe Primary School in Garissa left 10 people dead in the country within a week, with the school closed indefinitely following the attack that claimed the lives of three teachers.
