This archive report was first published on 14 January 2020.
On January 3, 2020, the US assassinated Iranian commander Gen Qasem Soleimani, sparking concerns of a potential Third World War. However, this threat is not as real as some may think.
History has shown that a single event can trigger a global conflict. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria in 1914, for example, led to the outbreak of World War I, which claimed 17 million lives and displaced millions.
However, the current international landscape is vastly different from that of 1914. The world is now a multi-polar system, with competing power blocks unwilling to risk going to war. The risks of loss far outweigh the possible gains and advantages, and even Iran is unwilling to provoke a full-scale war with the US.
Today, the United Nations and other regional inter-governmental institutions provide a platform for countries to address serious disagreements. In 1914, there was neither the League of Nations nor the United Nations to mediate conflicts.
Furthermore, key countries in the Middle East, such as Turkey, Egypt, and the Gulf monarchies, are now interested in diplomatic solutions to serious problems affecting the region.
However, the US-Iran conflict's latest escalation has thrust the world deeper into a nuclear problem. North Korea's Kim Jong-Un is keenly watching President Trump's behavior and intentions in the way it deals with Iran.
Iran could summarily thrash the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreements with the P5 + 1, which set limits on Iran's nuclear program and guaranteed that it does not produce nuclear weapons.
Despite the existence of regionalized centers of power, the US still controls military power due to its technological advancements and expenditure on defense. The US emerged out of the post-cold war unipolar world stronger than the previous bipolar world.
Because Russia and China are Iran's allies, they may vigorously challenge the US at the United Nations Security Council from attacking another country in an all-out war.
The US-Iran conflict has already harmed Kenya and the region. The unilateral sanctions imposed by the US have negatively affected international trade, with Kenya having to cancel a deal to import 80,000 barrels of Iranian oil at concessionary rates.
The biggest challenge countries in the region and Africa will face in the medium to long term is ideological competition, which could easily be weaponized. Sectarianization of Shia-Sunni conflicts will increase, and politicized. Such religionization of politics will deepen suspicions, increase existing, and cause new conflicts.
Dr Mustafa Y. Ali is the Chairman of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies.
