This archive report was first published on 12 January 2020.
January 12, 2020
Al-Shabaab's recent attacks in Somalia demonstrate the terror group's resilience and ability to adapt to the African Union Mission to Somalia (Amisom) efforts.
On December 28, 2019, a massive car bomb exploded at a checkpoint in Mogadishu, killing 81 people and injuring hundreds. The attack was followed by a similar incident on January 8, 2020, which claimed 10 lives.
Earlier, on January 5, 2020, a daring raid on Camp Simba, a base hosting US and Kenyan troops in Lamu County, left three US personnel and five attackers dead.
These attacks were intended to send a message that Al-Shabaab remains a force to be reckoned with, despite the gains made by Amisom.
However, experts argue that the terror group's actions are a sign of weakness, rather than strength. The attacks demonstrate Al-Shabaab's inability to wage conventional war, forcing it to resort to asymmetrical warfare.
Amisom and its backers face a significant challenge in responding to an evolving adversary. A troop surge and introduction of multiple platforms to engage Al-Shabaab in a hybrid war effort may be necessary to counter the terror group's tactics.
US drones have been effective in targeting Al-Shabaab's leadership, but the group's cadres remain a significant threat. Somalia's challenge is two-fold: to prevent Al-Shabaab from controlling significant territory and to eliminate the group's financial resources by disrupting its illegal trade networks.
Ultimately, the solutions will require significant investment from the regional and international communities to enhance Amisom's human intelligence capability and direct a response against Al-Shabaab's active and sleeper cells.
