This archive report was first published on 11 January 2020.
January 11, 2020, marked a somber day for Somalia as the country grappled with the aftermath of a series of devastating attacks by the terror group al-Shabaab. The attacks, which took place in the closing days of 2019 and the first few weeks of 2020, served as a stark reminder of the ongoing challenge facing the African Union Mission to Somalia (Amisom) in defeating the group.
On December 28, 2019, a massive car bomb exploded at a checkpoint in Mogadishu, leaving 81 people dead and hundreds more injured. Just a week later, on January 5, 2020, a daring raid on Camp Simba, a base hosting US and Kenyan troops in Lamu County, resulted in the deaths of three US personnel and five al-Shabaab fighters, as well as extensive collateral damage to property.
The attacks were intended to send a clear message that al-Shabaab remained a formidable force, despite the gains made by Amisom in recent years. However, experts argue that the group's resilience is a testament to the effectiveness of Amisom's efforts, rather than a sign of failure.
According to analysts, al-Shabaab's conventional war-waging capabilities have been severely degraded by the multinational effort, forcing the group to adopt asymmetrical warfare tactics. While the toll from the attacks may seem impressive, it actually represents a weakened militia.
The challenge for Amisom and its backers is how to respond to an evolving adversary. Rather than drawing down its contingent, this might be the time for a troop surge and the introduction of multiple platforms to engage al-Shabaab in a hybrid war effort.
US drones have made significant contributions to the fight against al-Shabaab, knocking out key elements of the group's leadership. However, as the recent attacks demonstrate, al-Shabaab is not short of cadres, and a more comprehensive approach is needed to defeat the group.
Ultimately, the solutions will not come cheap, and the regional and international communities must muster the will to invest additional resources in the fight against al-Shabaab. Amisom and Somalia need an enhanced human intelligence capability to find and direct a response against the numerous active and sleeper cells across the region.
