This archive report was first published on 4 January 2020.
On January 3, 2020, a US air raid at Baghdad's international airport killed General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force. The news sent shockwaves around the world, with many wondering what this means for Kenya.
Experts have warned that the retaliation promised by the Iranians may be directed at the weaker US allies, including Kenya. Terrorists may also take advantage of the chaos, with experts warning that the actual threat on US allies would be the rising possibility of terror attacks, either in revenge against US interests or from groups benefiting from US' distraction.
Dr. Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, warned on Twitter: 'We'd better be prepared for all sorts of Iranian retaliation against US diplomatic and military personnel around the region or world, given his symbolic and actual role.' He added: 'Make no mistake: any war with Iran will not look like the 1990 Gulf war or the 2003 Iraq wars. It will be fought throughout the region with a wide range of tools against a wide range of civilian, economic, and military targets. The region (and possibly the world) will be the battlefield.'
The world was also directly affected as oil prices surged almost immediately the news broke. Kenya, an oil importer, should be ready to pour out more money for fuel in the coming weeks. Dr. Kemoli Sagala, a research scholar on governance and strategy at the University of Nairobi, told Journalists: 'For Kenya, my view is that global oil prices will likely rise and this will affect our oil imports bill and economic growth.'
Kenya has been a target for terror groups opposed to the US since 1998, with the country hosting the biggest diplomatic mission in continent Africa and collaborating with the US on counter-terrorism measures. Kenya's relations with the Iranian government have also been strained since Iranian ambassador Dr. Hadi Farajvand left the country in 2019 under a cloud of controversy for trying to free Iranian terror convicts in Kenya.
