This archive report was first published on 3 January 2020.
As Kenya looks to the future, several key foreign policy issues are set to dominate the headlines in 2020. One of the most pressing concerns is the maritime dispute with Somalia, which has been a major point of contention between the two countries in recent years.
Kenya has been lobbying to have the issue resolved out of court, arguing that the International Court of Justice may not consider the political compromises attached to the dispute. However, Somalia has denied auctioning oil blocks in the disputed area, and Nairobi has been forced to pull plugs on bilateral relations, which were only normalised in November.
With the ICJ decision binding on both sides, Nairobi's lobbyists say the matter may not end there, especially since the Court lacks powers to enforce the binding decisions. The outcome of the case will depend on political movements in Somalia, where President Mohamed Farmaajo is seeking to consolidate power and seek re-election.
Another key issue for Kenya in 2020 is the UN Security Council seat, which the country won African Union's endorsement to contest for last year. However, the victory appeared more of a triumph in a battle rather than a war, as Djibouti has refused to give away and has gone on to launch a parallel campaign directly to UN members.
Kenya's diplomats have been marketing the country to UN members, promising to defend multilateralism and the link with regional blocs. However, if the contest goes down to the wire, Nairobi could be forced to do another lobbying among African states for the vote as it needs at least 129 votes at the UN.
Related to the maritime dispute, Nairobi has several unfinished boundary problems with neighbours, including Uganda and South Sudan. In 2018, Kenya signed an MoU with Uganda and South Sudan to help demarcate their borders, but the issue of Migingo Island remains unresolved.
Kenya has traditionally declared that it fully supports regional integration, and was a founding member of the re-established East African Community. However, occasional tiffs often happen, and last year, Uganda complained there was little 'synergy' in policies to enable smooth flow of goods.
Finally, Kenya continues to be hit by terror group Al-Shabaab, ostensibly because KDF are in Somalia. Nairobi insists the troops will remain in Somalia as long as Amisom stays, but the problem is that few people are willing to pay for the troops to stay.
