This archive report was first published on 20 December 2019.
Unlocking the Secrets of Value Betting ¶
Published on December 20, 2019
Value betting is a strategy used by experienced punters to make higher and consistent winnings in sports betting. It involves identifying bets where the odds given by the bookmaker are lower than the actual probability of the outcome.
For beginners, placing bets on their favorites or looking at bookmakers' odds and choosing ones that seem most likely to win can bring some wins, but the amount of money won is often not much. Experienced punters, however, use another strategy altogether to make higher and consistent winnings – value betting.
Understanding Bookmaker Odds ¶
Bookmakers carefully analyze various factors that can affect the outcome of a sports event and then assign odds to probable outcomes. Some even price up the odds (increasing the odds outcome by up to 120%) to create a safe profit margin.
However, despite these carefully calculated strategies, no bookmaker is 100% accurate when setting their odds. Therefore, you might find situations where the given odds are either higher or lower than the probability of the expected outcome.
What is a Value Bet? ¶
A value bet can be defined as a bet where the odds given by the bookmaker are lower than the actual probability of the outcome. To understand this concept, let's consider the odds of a coin toss. The actual probability of each outcome is 50% for heads and 50% for tails.
However, when going to place a bet, you find a bookmaker who has offered odds of 2.10 for heads and 2.0 for tails. The 2.10 odds for heads (47.62%) are lower than the real chance of heads, thus making it a value bet.
Applying Value Betting in Sports Events ¶
Unfortunately, when it comes to sports events, there are many probabilities that depend on a lot of factors. Therefore, using the concept of value betting is much trickier than it would be if you were placing bets on a coin toss.
However, it can still be possible to apply value bets when placing your wagers, thus winning more. Take, for example, football value bets. In an upcoming soccer match between Chelsea and Liverpool, a bookmaker estimates the odds of Chelsea winning to be 2.40 (41.67%), a draw to be 3.60 (27.78%), and Liverpool winning to be 2.80 (35.72%).
However, after analyzing the match and assigning your odds, you find the probability of Chelsea to win is 2.20 (45%). If you bet on Chelsea, you will have a much more payout if the team wins.
Tips for Finding Better Value ¶
Value bets are not easy to find, but you can be able to come across them when you know what to look for. Below are some value betting tips that can help boost your winnings when placing wagers:
1. Place bets on an area you are familiar with ¶
Finding a value bet is dependent on being able to accurately assign odds to sporting outcome events. And the only way to do this is to be knowledgeable in the sporting event you are wagering on so that you can take into account every possible factor that can affect the outcome.
2. Consider multiple factors that affect odds ¶
To calculate accurate odds, you must consider all the factors that will affect the outcome. For example, in football matches, some of the factors to consider include the players of each team (who are playing or missing), current form, head to head records, home and away records, styles of play, players' discipline, team quality, motivation, psychological state of team, weather, among others.
3. Calculate probability before looking at bookmakers' odds ¶
One thing to know when placing odds is that bookmakers are not always right. Therefore, before you start looking for value bets, first come up with your own analysis and odds of the match that you are interested in placing a wager on.
4. Shop around when placing wagers ¶
If you compare different bookmakers, you will be surprised to find that they offer different odds for the same sporting events. This is because they use different methods of setting their odds.
5. Review your results ¶
Value betting is not an exact science, but more of a trial-and-error method where you take calculated risks until you perfect the strategy. Therefore, you cannot improve your future bets if you do not understand what you did right or wrong in the past.
6. Be persistent ¶
There are some expert punters who make huge winnings in almost all of their wagers with value betting. However, none of them started this way. They started from the beginning, just like every other newbie in the betting industry and grew their skills over time.
