This archive report was first published on 13 December 2019.
December 13, 2019
After the UK's decisive victory for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives, the EU is now expecting Britain to exit the EU on January 31, as promised.
Just hours after the win, EU leaders meeting in Brussels were to discuss their priorities in trade talks after the divorce.
Will Johnson keep his promise to reach a quick comprehensive deal to preserve cross-Channel trade, or will he be forced to ask for an extension to the post-Brexit transition period?
Johnson maintains he will strike a new trade deal with the EU by the end of a planned transition period at the end of 2020, and will not take the option of asking Brussels for extra time.
However, experts widely agree that it will take far longer to achieve a comprehensive trade deal worthy of a country destined to be one of the EU's closest partners.
Despite Johnson's assurances, trade deals do not just come off the shelf 'oven-ready', especially if Britain is looking for a vastly different relationship.
"A fast agreement would be 'a very big ask' that would limit the ambition of the deal tremendously," said Fabian Zuleeg, chief economist at the European Policy Centre.
The British government will have to decide by July 1 if it wants to postpone the December 31, 2020 deadline.
On that date, it could make a one-time only request for either one or two years of extra time.
Without an extension, "maybe they can achieve something very basic that would give the UK very limited leverage on the tricky subjects like services, fisheries or Gibraltar for Spain," Zuleeg said.
