This archive report was first published on 13 December 2019.
As the 2020 Democratic primary heats up, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is facing a daunting challenge: regaining momentum after a grueling autumn.
Two months ago, Warren was commanding support from about a quarter of Democratic primary voters nationwide, and seemed to be building a coalition that cut across demographics. However, polling averages show that her support has dipped back into the teens nationwide, as well as in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Warren's struggles reflect a historical quirk to her candidacy: she has been fighting a two-flank war unlike any seen by a major Democratic candidate in the modern era. To her left, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is holding onto steady support from 15 to 20 percent of Democratic voters, most of them liberals. Meanwhile, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind., have been snatching supporters from Warren across the ideological spectrum.
This is the first presidential race in the past half-century in which two staunchly left-wing candidates have mounted viable, top-tier candidacies for the Democratic nomination. In many ways, this reflects the state of a party whose rank-and-file members have been moving steadily left since the mid-1990s.
“The Democratic electorate has a larger liberal bloc than it ever did,” said Sean McElwee, a co-founder of Data for Progress. “The rise in college education has created a much higher concentration of ideological liberalism, in a way that hasn’t existed in the past as a coalition in the Democratic Party.”
Warren and Sanders appear to be fighting for support from many of the same voters, while refusing to attack each other on the campaign trail. Both candidates are seen favorably by more than three-quarters of liberal Democratic primary voters, according to national polls.
However, Warren's support is particularly fluid, with over two-thirds of her supporters saying they were open to supporting someone else. Quinnipiac polling shows that Warren has flagged significantly since October among older voters and those with incomes under $100,000. Biden has picked up big gains among both groups.
Mr. Biden now commands the support of 22 percent of liberal Democratic voters, roughly even with both Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren, and double his numbers with this group two months ago, according to Quinnipiac’s polling.
