This archive report was first published on 12 December 2019.
On December 12, 2019, a historic referendum in Bougainville saw 98% of voters reject greater autonomy within Papua New Guinea, opting instead for a split from their neighbors across the Solomon Sea.
Former Irish Prime Minister and Bougainville Referendum Commission Chairman, Ahern, reflected on the outcome, stating, "I think they were surprised in Port Moresby." He noted that the Papua New Guinea government had expected a respectable percentage in favor of greater autonomy, but instead, the result was a resounding rejection.
"That has sent its own shockwaves through their system and I think there is a kind of realisation that this has happened because of years of neglect and not following commitments," Ahern said.
The referendum was consultatory and must be ratified by Papua New Guinea's parliament, where concerns have been raised about the potential for a rush of regions calling for greater autonomy from an already weak central government.
Shane McLeod of Sydney's Lowy Institute described the outcome as "all but inevitable," but warned that it could be potentially destabilizing for PNG's domestic politics.
Prime Minister James Marape's initial response was cautious, with him saying, "the government has heard your voice" and stressing the need for a "lasting political settlement that the national parliament can consider." Ahern welcomed this response, stating that it was "delighted" with Marape's decision to visit Bougainville on Friday.
Wednesday's vote capped a decades-long peace process and a long recovery from a brutal civil war between Bougainville rebels, Papua New Guinea security forces, and foreign mercenaries that ended in 1998, leaving up to 20,000 people dead – 10% of the population.
Ahern emphasized that there was no expectation that Bougainville's independence would come quickly, stating, "Nobody expects this all to happen overnight, nobody would be ready for that even if there was a miracle." He called for engagement and a peace process to move forward, with deliverables and a timescale to keep momentum going.
