This archive report was first published on 7 December 2019.
Published on December 7, 2019, a New York magazine article by Eric Levitz observed that Kamala Harris boasted the support of Hillary Clinton's donor network and had warm relations with the Obama administration. Despite her campaign's end, Harris trailed only Joe Biden in the number of important endorsements, according to FiveThirtyEight's tally.
Another misconception about the primary is that the party or the media is driving the direction of the contest. However, the data suggests that voters are not being swayed by the party's endorsements or the media's coverage. In fact, the media is more responsive than ever, providing coverage based on established interest and real-time measures of audience engagement.
Some argue that 'electability' is crowding out candidates who don't fit a safe profile. While it's true that many Democratic voters prioritize beating Trump, the evidence suggests that this impulse is not the sole driver of the primary. For instance, governors like John Hickenlooper, Steve Bullock, and Jay Inslee, who were touted as strong candidates, have not fared better in the polls.
Furthermore, the primary is not simply about electability. The data shows that voters are not drawn to candidates whose demographic profiles overlap with theirs. For example, Joe Biden's support among black Democrats is significantly higher than that of other candidates, while Bernie Sanders does exponentially better among Latinos than Julián Castro. Additionally, many gay Democrats have rejected Pete Buttigieg as inadequately progressive and insufficiently gay.
