This archive report was first published on 6 December 2019.
Heavy Rains in Kenya: A Meteorologist's Explanation ¶
Published on December 6, 2019
Over the past three months, most parts of Kenya have experienced heavy rainfall, resulting in over 132 deaths and hundreds of people displaced. The Meteorological Department has predicted that the downpour will persist until the end of the month, with intermittent episodes of heavy and light rainfall in the next three weeks.
According to Mr. Augustine Kiptum, the principal meteorologist at the Meteorological Department, the heavy rainfall is due to a number of climate drivers affecting Kenya. These drivers include the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which has been triggered by the irregular fluctuation of sea-surface temperatures, leading to more storm clouds and rainfall in the mainland.
Other atmospheric conditions that have contributed to the heavy rainfall include air masses, tropical winds or storms, and climate drivers such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Mr. Kiptum noted that the long-term weather patterns are affiliated to climate change, which is not just a Kenyan issue but also a regional one. He warned that counties prone to drought, particularly in northern Kenya, should store rainwater at this time in case there is drought come early next year.
The heavy rainfall has already had an impact on food security, with farmers losing much of their harvest due to flooding. Mr. Kiptum cautioned that it is difficult to determine if the long rains in March will be affected or delayed, but the current situation is a cause for concern.
As the rains are expected to continue for three more weeks in most parts of the country, with some areas experiencing rainfall until mid-January, the Meteorological Department has advised people to be vigilant and keep tabs on various predictions and advisories. Those living in valleys and landslide-prone areas should move to higher ground, and the national and county governments should ensure that infrastructure such as drainage and transport networks are in good working conditions.
