This archive report was first published on 4 December 2019.
Published on December 4, 2019, the Global Carbon Project's annual analysis of fossil fuel trends revealed that CO2 emissions were on course to rise 0.6 percent this year, a slower pace than previous years but still far from the level needed to keep global warming in check.
According to three peer-reviewed studies, the increase in emissions was attributed to the 'robust growth' in natural gas and oil, which offset significant falls in coal use in the United States and Europe.
Corrine Le Quere, an author on the Carbon Budget report from the University of East Anglia, stated, "We see clearly that global changes come from fluctuations in coal use." She added, "In contrast, the use of oil and particularly natural gas is going up unabated. Natural gas is now the biggest contributor to the growth in emissions."
Atmospheric CO2 levels, which have been climbing exponentially in recent decades, are expected to hit an average of 410 parts per million this year, Le Quere said. This is the highest level in at least 800,000 years.
The report's findings will likely make for uncomfortable reading for delegates gathered at UN climate talks in Madrid, where the warnings from the world's top climate scientists still resonate.
With just 1C of warming since the industrial era so far, 2019 saw a string of deadly superstorms, drought, wildfires, and flooding, made more intense by climate change. The UN warned that global emissions need to fall 7.6 percent each year, every year, to 2030 to stand any chance of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C (2.6 Farenheit).
The authors pointed out that 2019's rise in emissions was slower than each of the two previous years. However, with energy demand showing no sign of peaking, even with the rapid growth of low-carbon technology such as wind and solar power, emissions in 2019 are still set to be 4 percent higher than in 2015, the year nations agreed to limit temperature rises in the Paris climate accord.
"Current policies are clearly not enough to reverse trends in global emissions. The urgency of action has not sunk in yet," said Le Quere.
