This archive report was first published on 19 November 2019.
On November 19, 2019, Morgan Stanley released a global growth forecast, predicting a recovery from the first quarter of 2020 onwards. The forecast is attributed to easing trade tensions and monetary policy easing, which has led to a reversal of the downward trend seen in the past seven quarters.
A bank analyst from Morgan Stanley stated that easing trade tensions, a key factor in the global downturn, will lead to business uncertainty, making policy stimulus more effective.
The firm projects a global economic growth of 3.2% next year, compared to 3% in 2019. However, this growth projection depends on the US-China trade talks and the implementation of Trump's administration's next round of tariffs scheduled for December 15th.
According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, the global growth in the last quarter of this year is expected to slow to 2.8%, with a recovery delayed until the fourth quarter of 2020. Emerging markets are expected to drive much of the recovery, with the US experiencing slower growth.
US growth is expected to slow from 2.3% in 2019 to 1.8% in 2020.
