This archive report was first published on 9 November 2019.
On November 9, 2019, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics released the results of the 2019 Population and Housing Census, which elicited a range of reactions from politicians and citizens alike.
Some politicians were quick to express their disappointment with the figures, claiming that they were too removed from their expected projections. However, the most annoying complaints came from supposedly learned individuals on social media, who cast aspersions on the integrity of the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics without interrogating the probable causes for some counties to have a higher population than expected.
One such individual claimed that Kiambu County's high population count was impossible, given the supposed low fertility rate among its male population. However, when it was pointed out that many towns in the county, including Kiambu itself, Ruiru, Juja, and Thika, as well as highly populated suburbs like Ruaka, Kahawa, and Githurai, are extensions of Nairobi, whose cosmopolitan dwellers work in the capital and commute to and from their 'bedrooms', they went curiously silent.
The same applies to the Kajiado 'diaspora' – Ongata Rongai, Kiserian, and Ngong – which is why the county scored so high.
Despite the controversy surrounding the census data, there are reasons why politicians worry about the numbers. The first is that numbers will determine on which counties presidential candidates will concentrate ahead of 2022. The 'tyranny of numbers' ruse seems to have worked well for the ruling party in the past, and there is no reason why it should not work just as well in future, except that Jubilee has been torn asunder by the Handshake, which has obscured the distinction between the ruling party and the opposition.
However, the real issue lies in the allocation of national resources and revenue. Many governors and their prospective successors are worried that with reduced numbers, they may not get the windfall they have enjoyed all along. After all, 45 per cent of such allocations is based on population size.
But even all this may not matter until we know what is in store for the country once the contents of the Building Bridges Initiative report are revealed. If we go parliamentary, the tyranny of numbers will not matter much, nor will county population sizes.
