This archive report was first published on 2 November 2019.
Uganda's food inflation rate has remained low at 1.9 per cent, despite a failed harvest in the 2019 first crop season. This is due to a spill-over of stock from the 2018 bumper harvest, which has kept the prices of staple foods low since June 2018.
According to Opolot Okaasai, a crop resources expert and former director of crop resources at the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, the 2018 harvest was successful because the first rains came on time across the country and floods hit after the crops had been harvested.
However, this year's harvest started on a difficult note, with the first quarter affected by two tropical cyclones that hit Mozambique and disrupted the country's rain pattern. The March-June rain season was characterised by drought conditions in March and April, as the cyclones redirected precipitations away from East Africa.
Despite the challenges, the Food and Agricultural Organisation has reported that total cereal production for 2019 is tentatively set at about 3.4 million tonnes, nearly 10 per cent down from 2018 and 5 per cent below the average of the previous five years.
However, food inflation is expected to decline in December when fresh harvests will be reaching the markets. The minister for Agriculture, Vincent Bamulangaki Ssempijja, has warned that maize prices are expected to remain high for the next few months due to heavy rains in several maize growing areas disrupting the next harvest.
A kilogramme of maize is currently retailing at between Ush1,200 ($0.32) and Ush1,300 ($0.35), up from between Ush800 and Ush850 ($0.2) in June and July.
