This archive report was first published on 31 October 2019.
Kenya and Somalia's Maritime Dispute: A Risky Outcome ¶
Kenya and Somalia's long-running maritime dispute is set to be heard by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in June 2020. The dispute, which has been ongoing since 2014, revolves around a 100,000 square kilometre area of the Indian Ocean that is believed to contain large deposits of oil and gas.
Both countries claim the area as their own, with Kenya arguing that the sea border should be drawn parallel to the line of latitude, while Somalia believes it should extend in the same direction as its land border.
The ICJ's ruling will be final and binding under international law, but it cannot enforce it. This has led to concerns that the outcome could lead to a further deterioration in relations between the two countries.
Kenya has tried to convince Somalia to drop the case and settle the matter outside of court, but Somalia has resisted this pressure. The country believes that its best interests lie in the international legal system, and has been encouraged by nationalist sentiment in the country and the diaspora.
As the weaker party, Somalia has fewer regional backers and is more vulnerable to pressure from Kenya. However, it has stuck to its strategy of taking the case to the ICJ, despite the risks.
The dispute has already become highly politicized, with both countries treating it as a matter of national integrity. In August, Kenyan parliamentarians called on President Uhuru Kenyatta to consider sending troops to the maritime border to protect the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
However, the issue is not just about oil and gas deposits. Kenya and Somalia are deeply intertwined and interdependent, and the dispute has the potential to destabilize the region.
Kenya is a major troop contributor to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which has been crucial in containing al-Shabaab, a threat that affects both countries. Moreover, Kenya has a significant Somali population and has hosted hundreds of thousands of its neighbours since the Somali state collapsed in 1991.
Ultimately, the ICJ's ruling will not end the dispute, but rather mark the start of its next chapter. Negotiating a resolution is not only necessary, but would be in both countries' interests. The main party that would gain from the lack of talks and a deterioration in relations would be the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab.
Al-Shabaab has already been using the dispute with Kenya as a recruitment tool, and has condemned the country's maritime claims as a form of foreign invasion. If Kenya were to pull back its 4,000 troops from Somalia, AMISOM's capabilities would be severely weakened.
Published on October 31, 2019, at 07:19:56 AM.
