This archive report was first published on 30 October 2019.
On October 30, 2019, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide, a move that has been years in the making.
For American diplomats, this resolution offers two crucial lessons that extend beyond the US-Turkey relationship.
First, the truth must be told, even if it's uncomfortable. For decades, diplomats have been reluctant to acknowledge the well-documented genocide due to fear of alienating Turkey. In 2005, Ambassador John Evans was recalled and forced into early retirement after stating the truth about the Armenian genocide.
As Ambassador to the United Nations in 2013, I worried about being asked about the Armenian genocide and the potential diplomatic fallout. However, affirming the historical facts is essential for maintaining American credibility.
Second, bullies often escalate their tactics when they feel they're getting away with it. The Turkish government has spent millions of dollars lobbying American officials and lawmakers, with over $12 million during the Obama administration and almost as much during the Trump presidency.
Despite these efforts, the Turkish government has threatened to respond to genocide recognition by suspending financial ties with American companies, reducing security cooperation, and even preventing the resupply of US troops in Iraq.
However, it's essential to remember that Turkey has far more to lose than the US in the relationship. The US has invested heavily in Turkey's military and economy, with American companies investing over $20 billion in the country over the past five years.
If President Erdogan continues to deepen ties with Russia or China, it will be due to his own repressive tactics, not the House's recognition of the Armenian genocide.
