This archive report was first published on 22 October 2019.
Botswana, known for its peaceful transfer of power, is entering uncharted territory as it holds its general elections on October 23, 2019. The country's regular smooth transfer of power has earned it a reputation as an oasis of peace and stability in Africa.
Former president Ian Khama has broken with tradition to challenge his successor Mokgwetsi Masisi in the polls. His shadow will loom large over the polls with his breakaway party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), contesting elections for the first time.
According to Lt Gen Khama, the BPF will get at least 14 seats in Parliament, with some analysts predicting an outcome ranging from too close to call to a historic defeat for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) that has ruled the country since independence.
In the last elections five years ago, the BDP lost the popular vote but secured 37 seats against the opposition's 20 to retain power thanks to Botswana's first-past-the-post democracy.
However, an Afrobarometer poll carried out in July and August predicted an easy win for the BDP, with a 2-to-1 lead over the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).
But Peter Fabricius, a consultant at the South Africa-based Institute of Security Studies (ISS), insisted that the former president's defection from the ruling party had made the outcome of the polls unpredictable.
“Former president Lt Gen Ian Khama is the wild card in this week's Botswana elections. His bitter public fallout with his successor Masisi has made the outcome uncertain and raised some concerns about political and economic post-election stability,” he said in a preview of the polls published by the ISS.
President Masisi has promised to step up the fight against corruption, which is believed to be at the center of his falling out with Lt Gen Khama and his allies.
Despite a peaceful give-and-take campaign, the alleged financing of the opposition by a South African businessman has raised temperatures, with authorities seizing aircraft belonging to the businessman that was used by Mr Boko during the campaigns.
