This archive report was first published on 12 October 2019.
As Mozambique prepares for its general election on October 15, the country's fragile peace hangs in the balance. The election, which is expected to be a litmus test of the durability of the peace deal, has been marred by violence and threats from militant groups.
Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique has struggled to achieve stability, with a series of civil wars and peace agreements failing to resolve the conflict. The latest peace agreement, signed in August, has raised hopes that the worst may be behind the country, but analysts warn that a poor election performance by either the ruling Frelimo party or the opposition Renamo could exacerbate existing internal fault lines.
Renamo's armed wing, led by Mariano Nhongo, has launched a series of attacks on highways and homes, particularly in central and northern Mozambique. However, the group's threats to kill Renamo leader Ossufo Momade if he signed the peace agreement or contested for the presidency were called off, suggesting that they may be of little value in the run-up to the elections.
According to Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at Chatham House, the majority of those still fighting are middle-aged and increasingly fatigued by conflict, making them more amenable to finding a pathway towards peace.
More than 12.9 million voters will participate in the election, which will determine the presidency, provincial governorships, and assembly members. Pope Francis, who visited Maputo in September, urged all parties to adhere to the peace agreement and avoid vengeance or repression.
However, the country's Defence Ministry has reported killing several insurgents at Mocímboa da Praia district in Cabo Delgado's province, and an attack on Frelimo headquarters in the same province killed 15 people last month. The insurgent attacks in Cabo Delgado Province began in October 2017, carried out by a jihadist group.
On Monday, election observer Anastácio Matavel was killed by a police unit in Gaza province, which is controlled by Frelimo. The US embassy in Maputo condemned the killing, and Electoral Observation Platform co-ordinator Hermenegildo Muhlovo expressed fear for the security of observers.
