This archive report was first published on 12 October 2019.
On the surface, William Ruto's 2022 presidential ambitions appear to be gaining momentum. However, a closer examination of the numbers reveals a more complex reality. In the 2017 elections, Uhuru Kenyatta mobilized 4.8 million votes from the Mt. Kenya region, while Ruto secured 1.3 million votes from the Kalenjin vote bloc.
As Ruto seeks to become the next President, he faces a significant challenge: how to secure the Mt. Kenya vote bloc, which has a united vote of 6.5 million registered voters. With his Kalenjin vote bloc providing only 1.5 million votes, Ruto needs the Mt. Kenya vote bloc to give him a head-start over other contenders.
However, Ruto's problem lies in the fact that he has used his 1.5 million votes to negotiate for the Deputy Presidency and 50% of the government's resources in the past. What can he offer the Mt. Kenya region in return for their 4.5 million votes?
One option is for Ruto to invite the Mt. Kenya region to 'repay' the debt they owe him for supporting Uhuru Kenyatta in 2013 and 2017. However, this idea has already been rejected by the region, with leaders stating that they cannot support Ruto without any reciprocation.
Another option is for Ruto to split the Mt. Kenya vote bloc into smaller groups, making it easier for him to secure their votes. This would neutralize the region's capacity to negotiate for anything jointly in the post-2022 elections, making it easier for Ruto to succeed.
As Nyeri MP Ngunjiri Wambugu notes, 'William Ruto must therefore do something about the Mt. Kenya vote. He has two options.'
Ultimately, Ruto's success in the 2022 elections will depend on his ability to navigate the complex web of alliances and negotiations in the Mt. Kenya region.
