This archive report was first published on 2 October 2019.
Published on October 2, 2019, the Fitch Rating report highlights a significant decline in the global economy's outlook due to the ongoing US-China trade wars.
The report forecasts a substantial decrease in the world's GDP growth rate, with a predicted fall to 2.6% in 2019 and 2.5% in 2020, marking the lowest rate since 2012.
China's growth forecast for 2020 has been lowered to 5.7%, down from 6.0%, while the Eurozone's forecast is 1.1%, down from 1.3%. The United States' growth forecast for 2020 remains at 1.7%, a decrease of 0.1%.
Germany is expected to experience a technical recession in the third quarter of 2019 due to its highly open economy, which will likely prolong the slump in global trade and manufacturing, subsequently pressuring the Eurozone's expansion.
Despite the United States' deteriorating exports, manufacturing, and business investments, its closed economy continues to support strong consumer spending, a tight labor market, and an expansionary fiscal policy, leading Fitch to predict a slowdown rather than a recession ahead.
Central Banks worldwide have implemented the most rapid and geographically broad-based shift to monetary policy easing since 2009, resulting in a sharp decline in global bond yields.
