This archive report was first published on 1 October 2019.
By ROBERT SHAW
Kenya's maize subsector is facing a crisis, with Agriculture Chief Administrative Secretary Andrew Tuimur revealing disturbing facts about the current state of the industry.
According to Tuimur, the overall harvest will be down from 44 million bags last year to 33 million bags this year, with land under the crop shrinking from 2.2 million hectares to 1.5 million hectares.
The decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including drought, a late onset of rains, and persistent Fall armyworm attacks.
Maize farmers' morale has also declined significantly due to slow payments and high costs of inputs, compounded by the late arrival of subsidised fertiliser.
Some argue that the industry needs to become more efficient and lower its high costs of production, while others point out that North Rift farmers are a powerful lobby, often at variance with the country's need for regular supplies of maize at affordable prices.
Kenya has a structural deficit in maize production, with the country relying on informal imports from neighbours in mediocre years and transatlantic imports in bad years.
The key to understanding whether Kenya will produce enough maize lies in the North Rift crop, which produces the surpluses.
Kenya is a major importer of Ugandan and Tanzanian maize surpluses, with imports often informal and absorbed into the maize market easily.
Most of the maize produced in Kenya is rain-fed, with some arguing that the way out of the structural deficit is to have more maize grown under irrigation.
However, irrigation projects such as the Galana-Kulalu scheme have suffered setbacks, with some arguing that smaller, more targeted projects are the way forward.
As things stand, Kenya might just make it until March 2020, with fears persisting that shortfalls would be happening now but for informal imports and crops boosted by late rains.
Conversely, some argue that duty-free international imports at this juncture would have helped to dampen price rises, particularly for yellow maize used in animal feed.
