Kenyan security analysts and civil society groups have warned of escalating political gang activity ahead of the August 9 general elections, linking their resurgence to violence during the 2013 polls and a 1,000% increase in gang numbers since 2010.
During a virtual discussion hosted by Counter Terrorism Policing Kenya, participants noted that successive governments have banned criminal groups without resolving underlying issues. Shanti Tasha, a civil society representative, cited historical bans under former presidents, including 18 groups under Moi, 30 under Kibaki, and 90 under Uhuru, yet gang proliferation persists.
"The pattern of banning gangs continues across administrations, but systemic failures in addressing root causes remain," Tasha said. She emphasized the threat to national security, calling for urgent government action to counter the growing menace.
Experts attributed the surge to high youth unemployment, security agency corruption, and political exploitation. Dominic Pkalya of the Institute for Strategic Dialogue referenced a 2018 National Crime Research Center study showing gang numbers rose from 33 in 2010 to 326 by 2017, with current estimates exceeding 400 groups.
A 2018 Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime report linked Nairobi and Mombasa gangs to political funding and election violence. Pkalya noted evolving tactics, including new identities to evade detection, while Martha Njiiri of the IGAD Centre highlighted female gang recruitment in Murang’a County as a concerning trend.
Youth leader Nehemiah Kipserem criticized intelligence failures, citing 2013 and 2017 election-era disappearances of critics. Franklin Waruhiu alleged politicians use gangs to consolidate power, with past incidents involving targeted eliminations during electoral cycles.
Participants recommended reforms to enhance agency independence, improve media coverage of gang activities, and strengthen security in high-risk areas. The discussion underscored the urgent need for coordinated action to prevent electoral violence linked to organized criminal networks.
