William Ruto has captured 71.46% of voter support in Murang’a County, according to a 2021 survey conducted by former gubernatorial candidate Irungu Nyakera, while opposition leader Raila Odinga receives just 8.32%, according to the poll results.
The survey, which interviewed two individuals at each of the county's 584 polling stations, reveals a significant shift in political dynamics. Despite Raila's backing from regional leaders including governors and Cabinet Secretaries, his campaign has struggled to translate high-profile endorsements into local support. Ruto's populist rhetoric has resonated strongly with voters, according to local observers.
Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru acknowledged the challenge of competing with Ruto's popularity, stating that even her own performance would not guarantee victory if she ran on a Jubilee ticket. Her decision to join the UDA party was influenced by family members who aligned with Ruto's movement, a local official confirmed.
The poll underscores Ruto's dominance in the region, which has seen his campaign target areas beyond Mt. Kenya, including the Coast and Western regions. Analysts note that his success hinges on maintaining Mt. Kenya's support, as he faces strong opposition elsewhere. This dynamic mirrors patterns observed in 2013 and 2017 elections, when regional voting blocs played critical roles.
Ruto's strategy of bypassing traditional power brokers has disrupted established political structures, particularly in Central and Ukambani regions. However, concerns about his campaign's sustainability persist as Raila's team seeks to counter his advances. The 2022 election remains a fluid landscape, with alliances and strategies likely to evolve in the coming months.
