Analysts highlight growing risks of proxy conflicts in the Horn of Africa as US-Iran tensions escalate, citing historical precedents and economic repercussions from past disputes.
The 2012 cancellation of an Iranian oil-importation deal with Kenya, triggered by US-imposed sanctions, underscores how regional economies remain vulnerable to geopolitical clashes. Iranian diplomats in Nairobi emphasized their focus on US military targets, rejecting claims of broader regional aggression.
Dr. Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad of Southlink Consultants warned that Iran could deploy proxy forces to strike US facilities, potentially fracturing alliances across the Horn. He noted that such conflicts would mirror past Middle East proxy wars, where state-sponsored actors advance national interests without direct combat.
The January 2020 assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad intensified fears of wider conflict. While US officials attributed attacks on troops to Soleimani, Iran condemned the strike as an act of war, vowing retaliation. Iranian diplomats reiterated their stance that their conflict remains limited to US military forces.
Regional scholars caution against sectarian escalation, with Dr. Mustafa Ali of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies warning of deepening Shia-Sunni divisions. He cited the Yemen conflict as precedent, noting Gulf states may increase military presence in the Red Sea to protect strategic interests.
Kenya maintains a neutral position, with Dr. Tohid Afzali of the Iranian Embassy citing UN Charter provisions to justify Tehran's actions. Meanwhile, experts like Dr. Kemoli Sagala of Nairobi-based research institutions argue war remains unlikely due to US President Donald Trump's aversion to conflict, though International Crisis Group's Robert Malley warns Iran faces pressure to respond decisively through proxies or direct action.
