Kenya is on the cusp of a critical election period, and concerns about election-related violence are growing. A recent report by the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) has highlighted the potential for violence in various parts of the country.
According to the report, six counties have a high likelihood of experiencing election-related violence: Nairobi (79.85%), Nakuru (75.77%), Kericho (74.81%), Kisumu (72.46%), Uasin Gishu (72.25%), and Mombasa (71.15%). These counties are at high risk due to various factors, including the proliferation of small arms, organized crime gangs, and low trust in electoral management agencies.
The NCIC study also identified other factors that contribute to the potential for violence, including inadequate conflict resolution capacities, fake news and propaganda, and competition for scarce resources in arid areas. The report noted that the history of political violence in many parts of the country, lack of enactment of peace policies, and non-acceptance of election results have also been pointed out as potential destabilizers of peace.
With barely 69 days to the elections, the country's potential for election-related violence stands at 53.43%. This figure was arrived at after three sub-indices - pre-existing conflict factors (53.58%), potential triggers (53.4%), and weak institutional capacities (53.32%) - were carefully scrutinized in a study conducted between January and April.
The study categorized the potential for violence in three classifications: high risk (71% and above), medium high risk (54-70%), and medium low risk (35-53%). The NCIC has advised the security apparatus to be on the lookout for the propagation of fake news and propaganda via social media, rather than traditional incitement done in public rallies.
Other counties at medium high risk include Narok, Marsabit, Laikipia, Lamu, Baringo, Isiolo, Meru, Nandi, Samburu, and Bomet. In contrast, counties at low risk include Embu (29.70%), Nyandarua (31.93%), Makueni (32.07%), Busia (32.73%), Taita Taveta (32.87%), Tharaka Nithi (33.15%), Kitui (33.86%), and Kajiado (34.87%).
Kenya's democratic governance space is threatened by rising levels of corruption, high levels of unemployment, lack of inclusivity within government appointments, poor implementation of constitutional provisions, slow judicial processes, and weak public institutions. Kenyans also have very low trust in the institutions charged with managing the elections, with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission rated at 26%, the Judiciary at 23%, and the National Police Service at 19%.
Dr. Stephen Jackson, the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Kenya, equated democracy with the rough and tumble often witnessed in political wrestling and said that elections provided the perfect wrestling grounds to breed democracy. He emphasized the importance of Kenya's national peace infrastructure in containing the rough patches that come with the elections.
