Kenya's history of election violence is well-documented, with the 2007 polls resulting in the deaths of at least 1,200 people and the displacement of an estimated 600,000.
Fast forward to 2022, the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) has conducted a hotspot mapping exercise to assess the peace and security situation in the country ahead of the General Elections.
According to the report, six counties are at a high risk of experiencing electoral violence: Nairobi, Nakuru, Kericho, Kisumu, Uasin Gishu, and Mombasa.
These counties have been identified as having pre-existing conflicts around issues of resource distribution, high population density in informal settlements, and the infiltration of organized criminal gangs.
NCIC's analysis also highlights the emergence and re-emergence of organized criminal gangs, particularly adolescent groups, gangs, goons, and militia, as a significant cause of election violence.
Additionally, the report notes that drug and substance misuse are widespread and could contribute to election violence, while the increase in hate speech, propaganda, and political rhetoric on social media platforms is also a concern.
It's worth noting that the months preceding and following elections have been the most violent in Kenya's history since independence.
According to the research, the national election violence index for Kenya is 53.43 percent, with 10 counties at a moderate-to-high risk for electoral violence and 31 expected to experience calm elections.