This archive report was first published on 23 December 2021.
December 23, 2021, marked a significant milestone in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, with over 100,000 cases reported in the UK in a single day for the first time.
Early evidence from studies in the UK and South Africa suggests that the Omicron variant may be milder than previous variants, with estimates ranging from a 30% to a 70% reduction in hospitalizations.
However, the concern remains that even if Omicron is milder, the sheer number of cases could overwhelm hospitals, putting a strain on the NHS.
Dr. Jim McMenamin, the national Covid-19 incident director at Public Health Scotland, described the data as a 'qualified good news story,' but cautioned against getting ahead of ourselves.
Prof. Mark Woolhouse, from the University of Edinburgh, noted that while individual infections may be relatively mild, the potential for all these infections to come at once and put a serious strain on the NHS remains.
Another study in South Africa also points to the Omicron wave being milder, with people being 70-80% less likely to need hospital treatment.
However, it suggested there was no difference in outcomes for the few patients that ended up in hospital with Omicron.
Prof. Cheryl Cohen of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, in South Africa, said that the data 'really suggest a positive story of a reduced severity of Omicron compared to other variants.'
The reduction in severity is thought to be a combination of the fundamental properties of the Omicron variant as well as high levels of immunity from vaccinations and previous infections.
Researchers at Imperial College London suggest that Omicron's mutations have made it a milder virus than Delta, with a 25% to 30% lower risk of visiting A&E and about a 40% reduction in needing to stay in hospital for more than a day.
However, Prof. Neil Ferguson warned that the reduction was 'not sufficient to dramatically change the modelling' and the speed that Omicron is spreading meant 'there's the potential of still getting hospitalisations in numbers that could put the NHS in a difficult position.'
