This archive report was first published on 17 November 2021.
OKA on the Brink of Collapse? ¶
As the 2022 elections draw near, the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) is facing a crisis of unity. With Musalia Mudavadi's hard stance, some members are likely to defect to Raila Odinga's camp, potentially leading to a split in the alliance.
Recent events suggest that Kalonzo Musyoka and Gideon Moi may join forces with Odinga, leaving Mudavadi isolated. Moses Wetang'ula, the Bungoma senator, is also facing a difficult decision, with the possibility of joining Mudavadi or supporting Ruto's camp.
Wetang'ula and Cyrus Jirongo, a former cabinet minister, may decide to join forces with Mudavadi, which could make it difficult for the alliance to maintain its unity. The visit by Ruto and Odinga to Ukambani last week has shown that the region is already leaning towards one of the two camps, with Odinga's camp potentially gaining more support.
With Charity Ngilu (Kitui), Prof. Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni), and Alfred Mutua (Machakos) already joining Odinga's camp, Kalonzo Musyoka is under pressure to maintain his influence in Ukambani. He may choose to either run for president or join Odinga's camp, despite being accused of being inactive.
Ukambani has 1.8 million votes, while Western Kenya has 2.5 million votes. However, Odinga has a strong following in Ukambani, which could make it difficult for Musyoka to convince his supporters to join Mudavadi's camp.
Former Vice President Gideon Moi's statement that he and Kalonzo will form a new alliance with Raila and Uhuru's camp suggests that they have already written off Mudavadi. This situation is reminiscent of the 1992 elections, when Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Kenneth Matiba were both vying for the presidency.
Musyoka is likely to re-evaluate his position and may decide to join Odinga's camp, given the strong rivalry between him and Ruto. Another challenge for Mudavadi is that his loyalists, who are suitable to take over other regions, have been campaigning in Western Kenya, particularly in Kakamega, where Cleophas Malala and Ayub Savula are vying for the ANC ticket.
