This archive report was first published on 5 November 2021.
Kenya has seen a significant decline in Covid-19 infections, hospital admissions, and deaths in recent times, but experts warn that this could be a lull before a storm.
Dr Shem Otoi Sam, a Covid-19 programmes coordinator for the Lake Region Economic Bloc, predicted in September that the country could experience a fifth spike in infections and deaths this month.
According to Dr Otoi's study published in the International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, close to 75,000 total infections are forecast, with 50,000 people developing mild symptoms.
"We are dealing with a clever virus," Dr Otoi said. "If you relax a bit, it attacks and the way Kenyans are behaving now, it will attack so badly if we don't take care."
Dr Otoi added that the fourth wave is gone and the virus is becoming endemic as more Kenyans have been exposed to the disease and developed antibodies.
However, the immunity will not last with the continued political campaigns, the expert warned.
"With the little vaccination, the positivity rate will continue to rise towards the end of November and early December. So the best Kenyans can do is to adhere to the said measures," Dr Otoi said.
Despite the uncertainty around the next wave, experts are confident that it will not be as bad as the third or fourth waves because a majority of the population already has immunity from past infection, and those who are vulnerable in the society have been jabbed.
Available scientific data suggests that in most people, immune responses remain robust and protective against reinfection for at least six to eight months after infection.
"It is still possible that there will be a spike, but it will not be severe because there is a large proportion of people who have natural and vaccine immunity. Even if we experience a surge, our health system will remain resilient," said Dr Patrick Amoth, the acting Health Director-General.
