This archive report was first published on 5 November 2021.
Kenya appears to be experiencing a lull in Covid-19 cases, with new infections, hospital admissions, and deaths at an all-time low. However, experts warn that this could be the calm before the storm.
Dr Shem Otoi Sam, a Covid-19 programmes coordinator, predicted in September that the country could experience a fifth spike in infections and deaths this month. Using a mathematical model, he forecasted close to 75,000 total infections, with 50,000 people developing mild symptoms.
Published in the International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics this year, the study suggests that about 1,000 people are likely to succumb to the virus if the fifth wave is mild, but up to 3,000 lives could be lost if the infections are severe.
Dr Otoi warned that the virus is becoming endemic, manageable but unlikely to be eliminated, as more Kenyans have been exposed to the disease and developed antibodies. However, he cautioned that the immunity will not last, especially with the continued political campaigns.
Government officials and other experts are torn on Dr Otoi's prediction, with acting Health Director-General Patrick Amoth stating that the ministry is unclear on when the next spike will happen.
Despite the uncertainty, experts are confident that the next wave will not be as severe as the third or fourth waves, as a majority of the population already has immunity from past infection, and those who are vulnerable have been jabbed.
Kenya has recorded no new daily Covid-19 deaths for the last few days, with the country's positivity rate standing at less than 1 per cent for the last two weeks.
