This archive report was first published on 26 September 2021.
Germany is on the cusp of a new era, with its first election in 16 years without Angela Merkel set to take place on Sunday. The outcome is far from certain, with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) currently leading in the polls, but no party is expected to win a majority.
According to final surveys, the SPD is ahead on around 25 percent, with Merkel's CDU-CSU conservative alliance on 22 percent. However, to govern alone in Germany, a party must have more than 50 percent.
As a result, whoever wins will need the support of at least one and probably two other parties to govern. With the margin between the SPD and the CDU-CSU expected to be close, both parties could separately begin discussions with smaller parties.
One possible outcome is a 'traffic light' coalition, consisting of the SPD, the Greens, and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP). The nickname comes from their party colours of red, green, and yellow.
However, the FDP's leader, Christian Lindner, has said that his party's two red lines would be no tax hikes and reverence for Germany's cherished debt brake. These policies could be hard to swallow for the SPD and the Greens.
Another option is a 'red-green-red' coalition, consisting of the SPD, the Greens, and the hard-left Die Linke. SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz has been under pressure to rule out working with Die Linke, but he has not completely ruled out a partnership.
A coalition led by the CDU-CSU would be more palatable for the liberals, but the two parties will almost certainly need a third to make up the numbers. The most obvious candidate here is the Greens, which would result in a 'Jamaica' coalition.
However, when the FDP, the Greens, and the CDU-CSU were in talks to form a coalition after Germany's last election in 2017, the FDP dramatically walked out over disagreements on migration and energy policy.
Germany's last two governments have been formed from a coalition between the conservative CDU-CSU and the SPD, known as a 'grand coalition' or GroKo in German. Another grand coalition could technically be an option, but SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz has previously ruled this out.
A grouping of the SPD, the CDU-CSU, and the Greens could also be a possibility, known as a 'Kenya' coalition. The SPD could also seek to team up with the CDU-CSU and the FDP.
Whatever happens, there are likely to be many weeks of haggling, flirting, and backstabbing as parties try to form a coalition.
