This archive report was first published on 20 August 2021.
Published on August 20, 2021, by The New York Times, a tropical storm watch was in effect for parts of Long Island, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, including Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard, as Tropical Storm Henri threatened to make landfall.
Adam Sobel, a professor and director of the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate at Columbia University, noted that Henri's trajectory was uncertain due to varying wind patterns in the Atlantic Ocean.
According to Sobel, models that project Henri to strengthen more quickly have pushed it closer to the Atlantic Coast, predicting a stronger hurricane that makes landfall further west, possibly in New Jersey or New York City. Conversely, models that expect Henri to remain weaker project it to make landfall in New England or remain offshore until reaching Canada.
Before Henri makes landfall, it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the warm subtropical Atlantic waters, which have been made warmer by climate change. The National Hurricane Center's intensity forecast never projects the storm to grow beyond a Category 1 hurricane.
As recent aircraft reconnaissance flights have pinned down Henri's intensity and structure, the models have begun to agree more, making landfall in either New England or Long Island look most likely. However, some uncertainty remains as Henri stalls and drifts in weak steering winds.
Henri is expected to dump up to five inches of rain over New England on Sunday and Monday, with isolated totals near eight inches. Heavy rainfall across the area could bring some flooding, and coastal areas could see storm surge as high as five feet.
A left turn, vaguely Sandy-like but less dramatic, is possible, with a landfall point that would probably still be on Long Island. Landfall in New Jersey or New York City now appears unlikely, but it is not entirely out of the question. Everyone near the coast from New Jersey to Maine should be keeping a close eye on the forecast.
