This archive report was first published on 19 August 2021.
Israel's COVID-19 vaccination campaign, once hailed as a global model, has taken a dramatic turn for the worse. The country is now facing a fourth wave of infections, with the daily rate of confirmed new virus cases more than doubling in the last two weeks.
As of August 2021, Israel's daily case count had surpassed 7,000, with the majority of cases attributed to the highly contagious Delta variant. The surge in infections has led to a reinstatement of restrictions on gatherings and commercial and entertainment venues, with the government considering a new lockdown.
Prof. Salman Zarka, Israel's coronavirus commissioner, described the situation as 'war,' emphasizing the need for swift action to contain the outbreak. Scientists are still assessing the reasons behind Israel's pandemic response, which has plunged from a shining example to a cautionary tale.
One possible explanation is the waning of the vaccine's protections over time. Data published by Israel's Ministry of Health in late July suggested that the Pfizer shot was only 39% effective against preventing infection in the country in late June and early July, compared to 95% from January to early April.
Experts warn that these early assessments have not been scientifically proven, and the small numbers of cases involved, Israel's testing policies, and other biases could have skewed the results. Nevertheless, the findings have contributed to a U.S. decision to begin offering booster shots to Americans starting next month.
Israel's high rate of infections among early vaccine recipients may indicate a waning of the vaccine's protections over time. The first cohort to be vaccinated was an older group whose immune systems may have been weaker to begin with.
By June, Israelis had abandoned social distancing and other precautions, convinced that the worst was over. However, the Delta variant has since taken over in Israel, and now mainly comes from within the country.
Professor Ran Balicer, chairman of an expert panel that advises the Israeli government on COVID response, warned in May that despite the early success, Israel's pandemic was not over. There was the continuous risk of variants that could be more impervious to the vaccine.
