This archive report was first published on 10 July 2021.
As South Sudan marks its tenth independence anniversary, the country's future remains uncertain. The government's decision to mark the day symbolically due to the Covid-19 pandemic is a reflection of the nation's current state.
President Salva Kiir and his administration need to reflect deeply on the crisis facing the country. A decade after independence, South Sudan remains under the grip of conflict and partisan politics, with the population bleeding.
The World Bank projects that without a firm commitment to policy reforms, the double economic and health crisis could see the fragile economic gains of recent years washed away.
Household poverty and food insecurity are widespread, with service delivery all but gone and financial management chaotic. Inflation is galloping due to printing money to bridge the budget deficit, leaving many citizens unable to afford basic necessities.
Displacement of people from the land has seen food production shrink sharply, while inflation means that many citizens cannot afford whatever reaches the market.
The World Bank recommends that the government support development of the agriculture sector and address the underlying causes of conflict. Boosting service delivery is also crucial to the country's recovery.
Rebounding oil prices and the restoration of more wells to production mean that the country's inflows will improve significantly. However, without better budgeting and allocation of resources to the productive sector, the money from oil will remain a curse, snuffing out any incentive for sound economic management.
President Kiir needs to take the tenuous peace from simply holding to creating the conditions that allow people to go back to their economic activities. The people of South Sudan are not asking for much – just the political factions to stick to their end of the bargain so that individuals can apply their talent to lift themselves out of poverty.
With a ratio of one person for every 10 square kilometres of land, more livestock than the human population, South Sudan is sitting on a lot of potential. All it needs is an economic environment that attracts both domestic and foreign investment to exploit natural resources, create employment, and boost export and tax revenues.
South Sudan accounts for the largest refugee population in the region, with Uganda alone hosting more than a million refugees from the nation. Many more are internally displaced. Any signal that everybody can return to safety at home will go a long way in breaking the cycle of violence.
