This archive report was first published on 26 August 2020.
With the 2020 US presidential election just around the corner, the question on everyone's mind is: what's next for the Republican Party? According to Eric Posner, writing in The New York Times on July 13, 2020, a second Trump term would likely see the appointment of an even more conservative Supreme Court justice and a possible withdrawal from NATO.
However, Posner also notes that Trump's agenda would face significant opposition from the lower courts and Congress. In a separate article, Paul Gastris, writing in Washington Monthly in April-May 2020, suggests that Democrats may take back the Senate, further limiting Republican lawmakers' power.
As Gastris points out, Trump's base may continue to support him, but his approval ratings would eventually decline, much like George W. Bush's after his re-election in 2004. Bush's approval rating among Republicans plummeted 22 points in the wake of his failed attempt to privatize Social Security and the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, as Gastris notes.
What if Trump Loses Re-election? ¶
According to Bret Stephens, writing in The New York Times on July 27, 2020, the future of the Republican Party would depend on Trump's margin of defeat. If he loses narrowly, the Trump family would likely try to maintain control of the party. However, if Trump loses overwhelmingly, Stephens predicts a more profound schism within the party, with a 'cage match' between Marco Rubio and Tucker Carlson for the soul of the G.O.P.
Others, like David Brooks, writing in The New York Times on August 7, 2020, believe that the basic Trump worldview would continue to shape the party for decades, much like the Reagan worldview did in the past.
