This archive report was first published on 14 July 2020.
Published on July 14, 2020, the African Development Bank's East Africa Regional Economic Outlook 2020 highlights the region's resilience in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.
East Africa remains Africa's fastest-growing region, with a growth projection of 1.2% in 2020, rebounding to 3.7% in 2021, under the baseline scenario that assumes the virus is contained by the third quarter of this year.
However, in the worst-case scenario, where the pandemic persists until the end of 2020, growth is projected to slow down to 0.2%, still above Africa's predicted average of -1.7% and the global average of -3.4%.
The COVID-19-induced shocks and locust invasion have contributed to job losses, increased humanitarian needs, and aggravated poverty and income inequality in the region.
East African Community (EAC) trade volumes have dropped by 40% due to restrictions on the movement of people and goods, with significant declines after February when coronavirus resulted in tight freight controls at key border points.
The African Development Bank provided support to affected countries, including $212 million to Kenya, $165 million to Ethiopia, $4 million to South Sudan, and $10 million to Seychelles, to help mitigate the effects of the disruptions.
Overall, the bank projects that Africa's GDP will contract by 3.4% in 2020, with cumulative GDP losses ranging between $173.1 billion and $236.7 billion in 2020-2021.
